We love a good coffee shop sports talk session, especially when a local Springfield connection is taking center stage on the national sports scene. On this morning’s episode of The Starting Lineup, presented by Citizens Bank of Rogersville, Ned Reynolds, Scott Puryear, and Art Haines sat down with racing expert Aaron Halterman to break down the upcoming Belmont Stakes. There is a massive Ozarks storyline heading into Saratoga this year, as local owner Robert Lowe’s star horse, Renegade, has been locked in as the early 2-to-1 favorite out of the number four post.

The Shorter Mile and Quarter Track at Saratoga

Because of the ongoing, massive three-year renovation project at Belmont Park, the final jewel of the Triple Crown is spending one last year at Saratoga. But as Aaron pointed out to us, Saratoga physically cannot handle a traditional mile-and-a-half distance without starting on a dangerous turn. Instead, the race will be run at a mile and a quarter—the exact same length as the Kentucky Derby. While it doesn’t entirely feel like a traditional Belmont, Aaron reassured us that this distance shouldn’t hamper Renegade at all. Renegade has a pedigree to run all day long, and after a brutal start in the Derby where he was bumped four or five times out of the rail, he still missed the win by just a neck.

Betting Realities and Long Shot Sleepers

Scott brought up a great question regarding why local sports fans can’t find horse racing lines on traditional sportsbooks like BetMGM or DraftKings in Missouri. Aaron broke down the legal realities: sports betting is a house market, whereas horse racing operates on a parimutuel system where you bet against fellow players. For locals looking to get some skin in the game, you’ll need to open up the TwinSpires app. As for the betting ticket itself, Aaron is completely tossing Kentucky Derby winner Golden Tempo, arguing that a lack of early speed from other horses will ruin his closing style. Instead, he’s looking at emerging markets at 6-to-1 and growth equity at 12-to-1 to outrun their odds.

What is on the Line for Robert Lowe

The Lowe family has tasted plenty of success in horse racing over the years, but capturing a Belmont Stakes title would elevate them to a whole new tier. Winning a historic race like this completely alters the financial trajectory of a horse’s legacy, with potential breeding rights skyrocketing to $30,000 or $35,000 per cover back in Kentucky. Ned joked that his own stud fees saw a similar bump when he won his first Emmy, but jokes aside, all eyes in Springfield will be on Irad Ortiz Jr. as he pilots Renegade from the gate this weekend!